Keys to Absolute Victory: Obama Now Needs to Launch a “State of the Race” Ad Blitz to Blunt Hillary Clinton

May 9, 2008
Category: Keys to Victory

With the nomination virtually his, the last thing Barack Obama needs now is concede any type of ground to Hillary Clinton. The mistake, at this point, which Obama seems to already be committing, is to basically cede states such as West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico, where Hillary Clinton is expected to win by wide margins according to polls (The remaining primaries are scheduled as so: West Virginia (05/13), Oregon (05/20), Kentucky (05/20), Puerto Rico (06/01), Montana (06/03), and South Dakota (06/03)).

What Obama needs, in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico, is a score that would come close to what he unexpectedly got in Indiana, that is, he must come within 5% of Hillary Clinton in order to deny her any type of advantage, and blunt any attempt by her opponent to, once again, change the narrative of this election and deny Obama any right to inevitability. Right now, Hillary Clinton seems to be enjoying an insurmountable lead in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico. In West Virginia for instance, a recent poll by TSG Consulting, a political consulting firm, showed Hillary Clinton with a huge 40-point lead over Obama (63% vs. 23%). In Kentucky, a recent Survey USA poll showed Clinton leading Obama by 34 points.

Such huge margins could, once again, become game changers in a primary that has had everything in it, except certainties. Because the Democratic election is so close, opinions are volatile and change rapidly. For instance, on May 6 during the North Carolina and Indiana vote, pundit analyses were negative towards Obama as commentators pondered over whether the Jeremiah Wright blunder had had any effect on the May 6 voting. Those questions amplified as early results showed Clinton leading Obama in Indiana by 14 points. But, as the night progressed and Clinton’s lead shrunk to 4%, the narrative changed and became positive for Obama. By the time Clinton’s lead in Indiana shrunk even further to a mere 2%, the narrative shifted even further and began talking about the need for Clinton to drop out.

What this shows is that a laid-back attitude by Obama would inevitably lead to his being routed in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico. And such a route would inevitably put his status of virtual nominee into question. As a result, not fighting hard for these states risks shifting the balance in favor of Hillary Clinton once again, and raise doubts as to Obama’s ability to capitalize on his advantage. All Hillary Clinton needs, at this point, is to put further doubt about Obama in the heads of the superdelegates, and if she succeeds, Obama would become even weaker as a potential nominee. There is a difference between showing confidence and showing an unwarranted cockiness (and stupidity). Obama should never assume that simply because the math seems insurmountable, it cannot be surmounted. A Hillary Clinton win in her favorable states by margins of 15%, 20% or more is bound to put into question, one time too much, Barack Obama’s ability to rally Democrats and Independents around his candidacy at a time when he is the virtual nominee. John McCain went through that type of humiliation when Mike Huckabee continued to win states after the presumptive nominee had clinched the nomination.

But that’s where the difference is: McCain had already clinched the nomination based on raw electoral votes. He did not have to wait on the superdelegates to make up their minds. Obama needs the superdelegates to win, and since, by the very rules of the Democratic Party, superdelegates are supposed to be independent in their choices, and can switch their support, anything that is likely to give Hillary Clinton an advantage or change the electoral narrative must be blunted.

Obama, therefore, cannot afford the luxury a laid-back attitude. This did not serve him well in the past when, for example, he relaxed his campaigning and spent more time playing basketball in the last few days before the vote. Instead of campaigning hard in Ohio and Texas, he basically became overconfident, probably because some idiot in his campaign team had told him that the Super Tuesday momentum was going to be enough to get him victories in Ohio and Texas. He was trounced in Ohio and unexpectedly lost in Texas, and this allowed Hillary Clinton to come back strong and start building a case against Obama that pointed to his inability to attract working-class whites.

Because the best defense is always about being on the offense, the Unofficial Barack Obama Advisory Council (The Council) strongly urges the Barack Obama campaign, which enjoys an insurmountable money advantage at this point, to not only campaign hard in the states favorable to Hillary Clinton in order to reduce her margin of victory there, but also, and above all, to launch an ad blitz in those states whose purpose would be to totally blunt Hillary Clinton’s prospects.

The way the Obama campaign would do this is to simply launch a very positive ad whose main objective would be to rally the Democrats, the Independents and the Obamacans around his candidacy against John McCain, and past Hillary Clinton. The message of such an ad would be something like this:

SAMPLE AD VOICE OVER MESSAGE

With an insurmountable lead in pledged delegates and a growing support from superdelegates, Barack Obama is now poised to become the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party who will be fighting it out against John McCain in November. On May 20, Barack Obama’s lead in pledged delegates will grow to a clear majority and confirm him as the victor in this year’s Democratic primary. Now is the time to rally around Barack Obama and send a strong message to John McCain that the Democratic Party, the Independents and the Obamacans are ready to unite behind their candidate to win back the White House. On May 13 and 20, vote in huge numbers for Barack Obama and send a strong message to John McBush … er… John McCain that we will not allow him to win a third term for George Bush and continue the same Bush policies that have failed this nation. Let us stop the bickering in the party and vote for Barack Obama so we can unite our strength behind our candidate to bring our soldiers home, restore the image of America around the world, go after Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan, ease the economic pains of Americans at the pump, with the mortgages, health care, etc. (List all issues pertaining to Obama’s economic project for America here).

Basically, the idea with such an ad message would be to force into the minds of the electorate that:

1) Barack Obama is already the inevitable, presumptive, nominee of the Democratic party;
2) That a vote for Hillary in the remaining primaries is a vote for John McCain as it would give the impression to John McCain that Barack is a weak candidate;
3) That voting for Hillary Clinton would convey a message of continued division in the Democratic party at a time when we now need to really show strength and unite around the candidate most likely to become the nominee;
4) And that this would stop the bickering in the party and, perhaps, send a message to Hillary Clinton that her support has dwindled and now would be the time to go out quietly, and with dignity, as opposed to continuing to chase after an illusion that is not likely to materialize itself.

This, the Council believes, is the key to absolute victory for Barack Obama.

Dr. Daniel Mengara
The author is an Associate Professor of French and Francophone Studies at Montclair State University (New Jersey). He is also the leader of Bongo Doit Partir (Bongo Must Go), a movement of expatriated Gabonese citizens opposed and seeking an end to the 40-year-old dictatorial regime of Omar Bongo in Gabon.